The negotiation ends in a few hours—where do we stand?

For the last several days and even with the Ministers present, the negotiation is at a total standstill. It got bogged down in procedure and very little progress was made on substance. Last night, some of the writing groups were clearly backtracking, especially on the issue of commitments and actions to cut emissions in developed and developing countries, each side digging their heels in deeper instead of taking a constructive approach.

The world leaders held meetings in small groups yesterday at 11:00 pm in an attempt to unblock the talks. Unfortunately, the first two attempts at finding a compromise were unsuccessful. The heads of state tried to agree on a substantial policy statement that would resolve the four key issues: the future of the Kyoto Protocol, the role of the United States, verification measures for developing countries and long-term financing. If world leaders resolve these major issues, the negotiation could come to an end. But no consensus was reached overnight. The Sherpas took over again in the early morning hours and tried to find a positive way out.

The world leaders returned late in the morning to make their plenary speeches. Even though most of them addressed each other politely, we could sort of tell how the negotiation would end.

Wen Jiabao. The Chinese Prime Minister outlined a very tentative way in. He remained firm on the verification issue, but gave indications a compromise was possible on that point—although he would abide by China’s restrictions, and there are many. He also specified that China’s commitment was unconditional, in other words regardless of what happens here in Copenhagen, China would fulfill its objective without requesting financial or technological support.

Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva. The Brazilian president showed he is extremely eager. He adamantly reconfirmed his desire to reach an agreement today, but not just any agreement—a substantial agreement, not a superficial policy statement. He also changed the game by making a surprise announcement that Brazil was prepared to offer financial and technological support to poor countries. And he emphasized that Brazil’s commitment was unconditional.

Barack Obama. The American president clinched it. His speech was clearly more for his domestic audience than for other countries. It should be mentioned that his Congress is watching him very closely, which puts considerable constraints on him. The first part of the speech was a lengthy overview of the political process at work in the United States. The second part addressed the negotiations more directly. Barack Obama reminded the audience of America’s two key demands: that the largest emitters set measurable objectives on cutting emissions and that their actions be monitored by the international community. He gave absolutely no indication he would make concessions—even slight ones—particularly on differentiation, to find a compromise. On financing, he brought up the commitment Hilary Clinton made yesterday: that the developed countries mobilize $100 billion a year by 2020 to help developing nations with their actions to alleviate and adjust to climate change.

Manmohan Singh. The president of India appeared somewhat defeatist. He said we might be disappointed by the outcome of Copenhagen. But he also said he saw Copenhagen as a step towards reaching an agreement in 2010, thereby very clearly demonstrating he planned to do as little as possible in Copenhagen.

So, there is increasingly less hope for an agreement, even though nothing has been lost. The heads of state are negotiating a third text right now. Like Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva said, “It will take a miracle.” Let’s just hope against all hope that a miracle happens.